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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it creates an annual debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest competition is distinctly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, he bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still